Authors Hao Wu, David Carslaw, Louisa Kramer
Compilation date 13 January 2022
Customer London Borough of Waltham Forest
Approved by David Madle
Copyright Ricardo Energy & Environment
EULA http://ee.ricardo.com/cms/eula/

Contract reference Report reference

This report has been produced for London Borough of Waltham Forest and examines the impact of lockdown measures on evolving ambient air quality data. This analysis focuses on NOx, NO2 (and ozone data where measured) from January 2020 through December 2021, and uses proven modelling techniques to discount the influence of weather on ambient pollutant concentrations. Details of this methodology can be found in this blog. At roadside locations NOx concentrations will be closely linked to primary emissions and should show the direct impact of reduced local traffic on air pollution. NO2 will be from a mixture of primary emissions and secondary chemical reactions but should again be closely linked to local traffic reduction.

N.B. Both measured and modelled data reported here are provisional pending full QA/QC processes.

Time Series

First let’s look at the daily concentrations of the pollutants since January 2020 and get a general sense of the trend of pollutant concentrations. The dark green shading represents periods when either a UK-wide or England-wide Lockdown was in place. The light blue shading indicates the periods during which various restrictions on a regional level have been implemented.

Waltham Forest Crooked Billet

NO2

NOx

Waltham Forest Dawlish Rd

NO2

NOx

Waltham Forest Leyton

NO2

NOx

Simulated Normal Concentrations

A perennial problem when comparing air pollution data before and after certain interventions is the effect of the weather. To counteract the effect of weather, we use a model to simulate pollutant concentrations using wind speed/direction, temperature, weekday and Julian day as predictors. This model is then used to predict concentrations from March 2020, which can be seen as the normal concentrations expected if no intervention had taken place.

The simulated and measured concentrations are shown below. The orange line represents the modelled concentrations, and the purple line represents the measured concentrations. Before 23rd March 2020, when lockdown was enforced, measured and modelled concetrations were similar, suggesting that measured concentrations were comparable to the usual levels at this time of the year and under normal business activities. The modelled (i.e. ‘business as usual’) NO2 and NOx concentrations are predominately higher than measured concentrations during the first lockdown, which suggests that reduced emissions from traffic and industry are being seen in the measurements.

It should be noted that much of the analysis contained in this report provides an estimate of the deviation in air pollutant concentrations from what would have been expected if Covid-19 had not happened. As the time increases from the initial lockdown in March 2020, the calculated deviation becomes more uncertain. Also, concentrations of many pollutants such as NOx and NO2 would have been expected to decrease anyway, due to ongoing improvements in the vehicle fleet. We have assumed an ongoing 5% annual NOx concentration reduction due to vehicle fleet improvements. As such, there is greater certainty in the changes shown close to the initial lockdown in March 2020 compared with concentrations much later in time. Nevertheless, the results should provide a reasonable overall indication of changes relative to a non-Covid-19 scenario.

Waltham Forest Crooked Billet

NO2

NOx

Waltham Forest Dawlish Rd

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NOx

Waltham Forest Leyton

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NOx

Annual Average Pollutant Concentrations

Annual average measured pollutant concentrations for 2018 to 2021 (for each site and pollutant) are shown below. Also shown are the annual average BAU concentrations for 2020 and 2021. These plots are interactive: by clicking on the legend colours, data from different years can be displayed.

NO2

NOx

Monthly Change in Pollutant Concentrations

To put the magnitude of the decrease into perspective, the monthly mean difference in measured and modelled “business as usual” (BAU) concentrations are shown below. Pink bars represent measurements greater than modelled concentrations and green bars represent measurements lower than modelled concentrations.

Waltham Forest Crooked Billet

NO2

NOx

Waltham Forest Dawlish Rd

NO2

NOx

Waltham Forest Leyton

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Monthly Average Pollutant Concentrations

The plots below are box and whisker plots to show the distribution in monthly concentrations for each pollutant measured. The boxes represent the interquartile range (IQR) ranging from the lower quartile (25th percentile) to the upper quartile (75th percentile). The horizontal line within each box represents the median (50th percentile). The whiskers extend to the maximum and minimum values within the median ± (1.5 x IQR). Values outside the median ± (1.5 x IQR) are not shown here.

These plots are interactive: by clicking on the legend colours, data from different years can be displayed.

Waltham Forest Dawlish Rd

NOx

NO2

Waltham Forest Crooked Billet

NOx

NO2

Waltham Forest Leyton

NOx

NO2

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For further information, please contact:

Name David Madle
Address Ricardo Energy & Environment, Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR, UK
Telephone +44 1235 753257
Email david.madle@ricardo.com